TST Levels. GBP/USD on 30 April 2013

Day borders of options balance
UP           1.5519
DOWN   1.5386

The level of balance of the day –   1.5444

Index TST Buy     0.2821
Index TST Sell    0.2785

Mandatory zone
1.5466
1.5449

Day direction – *****

Zones
SELL    1.5543     1.5519
BUY      1.5481     1.5457

Comments:
Only few words about pound today.

Who watch my messages – they remember that 13 february i wrote about “meat signal” to buy. And one of important property of this signal – it’s if we don’t go straight to side of signal, then we always comeback to level of signal day.

And yesterday was this day – we came back to close of signal day. And this also add uncertainty to our expectations.

If who don’t remember what is “meat indicator” – i say about very rare signal, and when this signal appear, i wrote, that from this moment i will open only buy deals. And this symptom was one of main, why i ignore all sell-signals till worked off. So, yesterday i closed part of my buy-deals.

My “wish”… My expectations already worked off. For clear work of course better touch 1.5600.

Other wishes?
Rollback down till expiration (about 150 pips).

Big wish? Jump to 5650 till wednesday. And from there go on 1.54. Sad… But i don’t see symptoms for this.

Have a good day!

TST Levels. USD/CAD on 30 April 2013

Day borders of options balance
UP           1.0174
DOWN   1.0088

The level of balance of the day –   1.0146

Index TST Buy     0.1396
Index TST Sell    0.1713

Day direction – *****

Zones
SELL    1.0128     1.0113
BUY      1.0089     1.0074

Comments:
From all majors only CAD gave movements yesterday. I recommended to hold sells from last week, and who holds – well done!

Yes, he descends with unworked upper BD, and can shot up, that very probably. So, if you have intraday sell-orders, maybe better to close it. Who trade on Global – look yourself. Till first close left 70 pips (center between overprices). So if you have hard situation on your deposit – try to close partially here and don’t wait center. But other part – to bottom overprice. In case of shoot to up – make additional sells.

TST Levels. USD/CAD on 29 April 2013

Day borders of options balance
UP           1.0266
DOWN   1.0175

The level of balance of the day –   1.0239

Index TST Buy     0.1295
Index TST Sell    0.1976

Day direction – *****

Zones
SELL    1.0184     1.0168
BUY      1.0144     1.0128

Comments:
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TST Levels. GBP/USD on 29 April 2013

Day borders of options balance
UP           1.5508
DOWN   1.5405

The level of balance of the day –   1.5400

Index TST Buy     0.2590
Index TST Sell    0.3789

Mandatory zone
1.5439
1.5423

Day direction – *****

Zones
SELL    1.5506     1.5488
BUY      1.5458     1.5440

Comments:
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Analisys of situation for week 29 april – 3 may.

Hello!

Three main thoughts…

First – ‘overall’, just for information.

I wrote it yesterday in this message.

Today’s situation on screenshot below… 129 pips from high of friday till “target”.

Second thought…

In february sellers of put-options got big “troubles”, that almost resolved at this moment.
Losses in case of fall from current will be not important, because biggest part already “saved”.

Resume:

“Weak engine”, that pull all to up, soon will be switched off, and pound will walk by the sentiment of players.

And sentiment of players – it’s my third thought..

Third…

Very interesting looks current COT. Again no symptoms of reversal to buy from big players.

We grows from 12 march. But COT still with advantage to sell. From side of COT is nothing says about buy, from side of logic of positions of main players – it’s really that.

Think it over yourself… If we would want to go up, then speculators must be open buy, and close the sell, hedgers then close buy-deals, and open sell.

And what we see? Nothing from it.

Now let’s summarize all.

What we have?

Broke of buy in february was from 5650 +-50 pips (look at TST Global Zone, week from 4 till 11 february).

In ideal scenario we must to touch this area (5600 – 5650) and there to resolve – grow higher or go down.

But we haven’t confirmation that ideal scenario will work. But also no symptoms that it not will work.

Anyway – if enter in 5600-5650 we need to be attentive. From there we can fall in any moment.

Next…

Not ideal scenario – we go down straight and w/o stops. Because at down we left many “debts”. And broken border of OC in thursday and many other levels, where we need to descend.

Where these levels?

Areas
5330-5360
5200-5230
5150-5170
5000-5030

BD that was in expiration of futures (18 march) i don’t consider.

On any of these levels we can stop or reverse. Need to very carefully look at your money management, state of your deposit. Look at orders that still opened. And if you will look levels for new deals in case of descend – then i recommend to open in this areas.

Second “not ideal” scenario (in quotes, because it will be good for bulls, but not logical from side of positions of players) – it’s continue of growth.
To 56, then 57 and 6100.

There we work on TST Global Zones (partially close on center between overprices, other part on upper quarter, and fully reverse on upper overprice). By the way, on TST Global Zone we also see “sell”. Levels shifts down, but price continue to grow.

Recommendations?

It’s week of expiration. In friday – expiration of options. And, of course, on this week many players will try to resolve problems, that appeared after 12 march. And symptom of resolve this problems says about go down. What will be in real? Will see. Anyway, i recommend to not open big deals w/o SL.

And i will open additional buy orders in case of strong fall. And will close part of deals in case of growth.

Some seriously decisions or changes may be visible after expiration.

Indirect symptoms and nuances for this week…

- checking of correlation of pound with other pairs – not contradict to fall.

- on Euro on this week serious expectations of decrease of bank rate. This – can give new trend of fall of sentiments in Eurozone. This also says about down.

- on pound 6 may is weak, but important day (when possible high volatility or local reversal), usually it’s not precisely and +-1-2 days. So it can be in thursday – friday, or monday – tuesday (6,7 may).

- on system TST Hedge i see weakens of buy and little grow of sell.

Have a good week. Take care about yourself!

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The history of my “wish”. Day sixth.

First day – here

Very beatiful, isn’t it?

From yesterday’s high till target of “wish” – 145 pips. Not much. But last steps – most hardest.

We have few scenarios, read attentively…

1) If on options is nothing changes and we will grow all next week – probably strong fall after one week.

2) If on option all starts change to growth and we will rise – then probably continue to grow after expiration.

3) If on options is nothing changes and we will fall on next week – then most likely after expiration will be flat, till new fundamental push.

4) If on options all will changed to sell and we will rise – then we will fall in the hell after expiration…

This is my thoughts before lunch :)

Good luck!

Public trading. Current situation on 27.04.2013

NZDUSD
Closed sell from 0.8590 (lot 0,3) on center_white, earned 203 pips.
Opened sell from 0.8556 (lot 0,2).

GBPUSD
Closed part of buy from 1.5300 (lot 0,1) at 1.5399, got 99 pips of profit.
Closed part of buy from 1.5436 (lot 0,1) at 1.5403, result -33 pips.
Closed buy from 1.5485 at 1.5481 to – 4 pips.

EURGBP
Closed “worst” sell from 0.8403 at 0.8400 to +3 pips.

AUDUSD
Opened two buy deals from 1.0265 (lot 0,2 each).