First – about my “wish”. Blue scenario was broken. But broken at level 5170, which was level of start “wish” in april(yellow arrow).
Second – Monthly…
We see third rebound from important level. Previous was more than 50 pips, but against sell-tendency can’t gave more. Closest level to comeback is 5297, and next 5378. This is levels for comeback. In targets – nothing changed. We in bottom part of TST Global Zones – and all targets higher – center, quarter, upper overprice.
I received question in skype, why i gave comments in tendency and i have contradictions: from one side – we need to buy in buy-zone on Global, from other – we have sell tendency inside buy-zone, and i give recommendations about deals.
Remind one more time:
Don’t confuse signal and tactic. In day when i have sell-signal, i can look for buy, so i can work to buy from targets of sell-signal. And also in day with buy signal i can looking place for sell deal.
Main strategy: work on TST Monthly – it shows range of movements for month and target levels. TST Global – shows what kind of deals we need to look (buy or sell). TST Levels and other indicators – shows places or signals for open deal. If it work smart.
If simple – lower than center of Global we open buy from bottom quarter. If price go lower – wait signal from Heiken Ashi on D1, or open additional deals not closer than 120-150 pips from previous order.
Targets: center between overprices – close first part of deals. Upper quarter – close one more part, upper overprice – close all deals.
And always question: price in buy-zone, on bottom quarter, how to define how deep price can descent more? Or price in sell-zone, how far it can rise?
We was needed good way to define tendency. And now this way(tendency) in work – no one mistake from 12 march.
Explain one more time:
1. You can work by tendency with SL, if like now – tendency to sell, but we in buy-zone. Where to set SL? I don’t know, i don’t use SL. On pictures you can see that can be drawdown 50-100 pips from moment of define tendency. Maybe need to set SL on nearest low or high.
2. You can work on TST Global as usually – don’t trade on tendency, but use it to not open too much deals. Like now, price in buy-zone, but tendency to sell, so we must don’t open buy deals till tendency not changed, or open very small lot (from “Ladder up”, for example). And when tendency will change to buy – we open buy deal.
I hope after this explanation all become more clear.
About other pairs nothing to say… Only Australian, which not justified my expectations about reverse on past week. And i can comment situation on him only after tomorrow. After bank rate decision. Everybody waiting this: from speculators on futures and members of commodity markets till sellers of options.
After news about rate we can make some analisys. I can suppose two scenario: First: perspectively – till 7 july rise to 0.96 and 0.98.
Not good scenario: flat on current levels till september…
Very bad: fundament and other events push Australian down, and from wednesday starts to sell one more category of players, which needs to protect themselves from losses. And this will be “mini 2008″.
Of course this situation is uncomfortable and unpleasantly – but for 3 years we have such situation few times and always goes to profit in the end. So keep MM and good luck!