Comments for trade week 01 – 05 july 2013

About pound.

First – about my “wish”. Blue scenario was broken. But broken at level 5170, which was level of start “wish” in april(yellow arrow).

Second – Monthly…

We see third rebound from important level. Previous was more than 50 pips, but against sell-tendency can’t gave more. Closest level to comeback is 5297, and next 5378. This is levels for comeback. In targets – nothing changed. We in bottom part of TST Global Zones – and all targets higher – center, quarter, upper overprice.

I received question in skype, why i gave comments in tendency and i have contradictions: from one side – we need to buy in buy-zone on Global, from other – we have sell tendency inside buy-zone, and i give recommendations about deals.

Remind one more time:

Don’t confuse signal and tactic. In day when i have sell-signal, i can look for buy, so i can work to buy from targets of sell-signal. And also in day with buy signal i can looking place for sell deal.

Main strategy: work on TST Monthly – it shows range of movements for month and target levels. TST Global – shows what kind of deals we need to look (buy or sell). TST Levels and other indicators – shows places or signals for open deal. If it work smart.

If simple – lower than center of Global we open buy from bottom quarter. If price go lower – wait signal from Heiken Ashi on D1, or open additional deals not closer than 120-150 pips from previous order.

Targets: center between overprices – close first part of deals. Upper quarter – close one more part, upper overprice – close all deals.

And always question: price in buy-zone, on bottom quarter, how to define how deep price can descent more? Or price in sell-zone, how far it can rise?

We was needed good way to define tendency. And now this way(tendency) in work – no one mistake from 12 march.

Explain one more time:

1. You can work by tendency with SL, if like now – tendency to sell, but we in buy-zone. Where to set SL? I don’t know, i don’t use SL. On pictures you can see that can be drawdown 50-100 pips from moment of define tendency. Maybe need to set SL on nearest low or high.

2. You can work on TST Global as usually – don’t trade on tendency, but use it to not open too much deals. Like now, price in buy-zone, but tendency to sell, so we must don’t open buy deals till tendency not changed, or open very small lot (from “Ladder up”, for example). And when tendency will change to buy – we open buy deal.

I hope after this explanation all become more clear.

About other pairs nothing to say… Only Australian, which not justified my expectations about reverse on past week. And i can comment situation on him only after tomorrow. After bank rate decision. Everybody waiting this: from speculators on futures and members of commodity markets till sellers of options.

After news about rate we can make some analisys. I can suppose two scenario: First: perspectively – till 7 july rise to 0.96 and 0.98.

Not good scenario: flat on current levels till september…

Very bad: fundament and other events push Australian down, and from wednesday starts to sell one more category of players, which needs to protect themselves from losses. And this will be “mini 2008″.

Of course this situation is uncomfortable and unpleasantly – but for 3 years we have such situation few times and always goes to profit in the end. So keep MM and good luck! :)

Trade week 24-28 of june 2013

Hello!

Only few words. Because on this week nothing to say about situation – COT and other data came through expiration of futures, that’s why TST Global on the same levels (on next week he can sharply shifts).

So, new position we’ll see only in next monday. But, in generally, nothing changes: Australian still walking under overprice, Canadian broke upper overprice, Euro in sell – go from upper quarter to center between overprices, pound – in sell tendency, stopped on yellow level on TST Monthly, and looks like wants to descend on “Ladder up”.

On pound we in sell tendency, and from friday nothing changed, you can look my message for friday.

So, at this moment, no some special recommendations. Just repeat – trade only from quarters and overprices on TST Global – ignore buy-sell zones. About this tactic i writing from february, when we saw that central banks goes to market.

I think(hope), that on this week players on market will trade and we’ll have data, that we can use in analisys. These expiration blind weeks in summer, and at summer big players go out from market. So, have a chance that we will here till september.

So, will see results of this week and then decide.

Comments for trade week 17-21 of june 2013

Today the day, when i an give recommendation without indicators – take a rest. Yes, again.

Why?

It’s simple. Today expiration of futures. In tuesday wednesday will be Fed’s meetings. And in wednesday Bernanke say something about QE. So, i think you understand why better look at this from other side, or rest on the beach till wednesday :).

Pound still in middle-term buy tendency. And area where will be “decide” where to go next is 1.55-1.56. At this moment i don’t see symptoms of sell.

New futures contract accumulate very weak, don’t see sentiment of players.

I don’t like to discuss about fundament. But in last time many questions about this. So.. i don’t specialist in fundament, but i have some thoughts. And i think that Bernanke don’t want to finish QE while he is a head of Fed. But and continue also became harder. And considering that till his retirement left very small time, we can hear nothing clear in wednesday. Likely we don’t hear some decision about QE. On second place in my top – that QE will continue till new year. And the smallest probability – that QE will finished.

Where will go market in these cases? I think nobody knows. Even themselves – this is the top of global manipulation machine :)

So, till wednesday i will only watch. Pound in good profit, canadian also. NZD 240 pips. Only Australian in drawdown, but also starts to grow. Will wait – maybe will come to our target 0.9800 – 1.0000.

My recommendation, wait till wednesday and don’t risk.

Comments for trade week 10-14 of june 2013

Good day!

First. I want to congratulate to all with good profit on pound and perfect work of tendency. And on data and Monthly i see range for this month 4522 – 6085 – or 1.45 – 1.61.

You need to keep this in mind and calculate your risks considering this range.

Moreover, Monthly shows two yellow BELOW the price. And this automatically rises chances of bulls to rise from yellow levels. And also very good looks here our level 5323 (it’s Ladder up from past week). And in the same area also white level 5315. So this area very strong and very high temptation to buy there, but also have chances of broke all this beauty.

In my system pound in buy tendency now, in position when time for rollback, and COT and other symptoms says about this. But if look on TST Global, he touch center and now freezed in this area. It’s most uncomfortable place for analisys. From there he can go up and also go down. And if he will start to fall and broke yellow – then catch change of tendency to sell will be not easy.

What to do? Nothing. If we go upper – hold your buy-deals till upper overprice. If go down – by situation, average or wait buy tendency and then buy. By the way, you can try to buy a little from ladder up. To broke so strong level – need to cancel QE :)

And i little change my wish – need to add one more scenario. Yellow: rise to 5743(closer upper target on Monthly) and fall on 5323. It will be an ideal scenario. And scenarios like this worked very good in the past.

Other symptoms of sell i don’t want to discuss – you see all by yourself on TST Global Zone. Yes, he in sell-zone, but still under center of overprices. And nobody cancel the buy tendency…

About Euro…

On euro i see interesting level 3094. High probability to come back to this level, but all “freezes” in waiting of Fed’s decision. And unclear situation on TST Monthly – 3222 violet. We opened very close to them, and which side wait rebound – up or down? :). But in TST Global she in sell zone and touched upper quarter, so we can expect descent at least to center – area 1.2984.

On Canadian (he in sell), europound and NZD – now nothing interesting. I want to write more detailed about Australian. By timing calculations, today – important day. And this matches with news from China.

What i think about this.

Yes – fundament is not good. So continue to work on Global with Heiken Ashi and wait signal.

BUT! We have data from expiration. And on this data i can expect return as minimum to 0.9868, 0.9950, 1.0015.

What can broke this? Chinese news. I look on history, and we have range about 150-200 pips for fall.

Recommendations? Watch on Heiken, and if MM is good – buy. Or just wait of come back as minimum to 0.9868 and partially close “worst” orders.

P.S.: Don’t forget that current week is last before expiration of futures. So any analisys can be broken. Keep this in mind and be carefull with size of lot.

Good luck!

Few words about trade week 3-7 june 2013

First – congratulations with the beginning of the summer! :)

Second, who watch my blog last few days – saw how interesting and clear situation evolved on pound. Look how beauty worked friday’s analisys and how precisely works levels 5240 and 5190. By the way – 5190 resisted, we close day on 5199 – and this means that don’t gave to hold under 5190.

And don’t broke 5240, but very tried!

I look on data. Sell tendency weakens, but “don’t let go”. Level 5240 still important for broke sell tendency. 5190, 5120 and 5070 – important for continue of sell tendency. Because from side of our analisys and define of tendency, friday walks on one place. And our analisys from friday is valid for monday, only with mark that they who work with buy-limits from 5190, 5120 and 5070 – now have one buy, that now in profit 10 pips. I repeat analisys from friday here, for you don’t need to search it on blog…

So…

Full text and pictures you can read in this link.

Important part about tactic:

What is our tactic?

Of course no sell! Only if with SL.

And three ways to buy.

1. As me – don’t wait of confirmation of buy tendency, buy from 5229. My deposit in good state, so my MM allows me to do this.

2. More carefully variant – set buy-stop order on 5245. And if touch and fall – what to say… but if touch ang rise higher then all is fine. But if don’t touch and fall – then we can work by third variant.

3. Get half of working lot. Split in three parts. And set buy limits on 5190. 5120 and 5070. It will be best variant.

And we have fourth variant – fir they whi have big drawdown and have dangerous situation from deals on other pairs and don’t keeping MM. For you better don’t do anything. Because today is last day of may. And this means that next week is last in current options contract and is two weeks left till expiration of futures. For us it means: Trade with positive, but very carefully, to not become sad.

Have a good day!

P.S.: If today we don’t grow: fall or flat – it doesn’t mean that sell tendency is came back. See “came back” we can only in monday-tuesday in Daily Bulletin and COT.

****************************** (end of quote friday’s post) **********************************

On COT, by the way, still keeps sell sentiment with a little softening to buy. So next week, that will be first from two weeks of expirations, can be very funny or, as minimum, “nor boring” :)

It was about pound…

About euro – all the same. All is freezes in awaiting of news from EU and from Fed about QE (what’s my thoughts? I think not now. Will close partially but not now. And if 17 june Ben say about it – i hope markets will react “right” and jump up). But this is just suppositions. You know that forecasts on news – bad thing.

And from news from Chine depends next movements of Australian. He falls already very deep. Maybe it’s not the end… but i see seriously brake of sell. I fully revert to buy and if start to rise – work on targets by TST Global Zone. If go down – will buy when Heiken again paint to “buy”.

Have a good week!

Comments for week 27-31 of may 2013

First. Maybe you see that last two weeks was virus attack on our servers, so i recommend to make antivirus check on your computers. We working with this problem, our apologize! Looks like we interfere to someone :)

Now about market.

Pound

Middle-term sell tendency take a pause. I see that on rollback was closing of sell-positions. It’s not signal to buy (because they closed sell, but can open again in any time), but, probably, we get pause. And if will no pressure from fundament – can be rise to 52.

I repeat: no signal to buy. Sell tendency still in work. If i will see signal to buy – i will scream about it everywhere.

By positions on pound: Heiken on D1 very red. So i have only one buy and i don’t hurry up to average. Wait for signal.

If you work conservatively – then you have no buys or only from 5413. If agressive – about 2-4 buy-deals. Better not open sell now, if already opened – better to close.

Euro

Still “nothing interesting”. Lying under fundamental pressure. And pound and euro, and all others – waiting decision about QE. And this decision awaited 18-19 june.

If i don’t mistake – today is holidays in GB and USA. So, today can be flat all day or very sharply movements. Be carefull, today is not the best day for trading.

About middle-term – as i said: likely will be nothing globally until decision about QE.

Australian

Heiken is red. Wait signal from him or from data in DB.

NZD – the same.

And Canadian – catch sell from overprice level and now gave a little profit.

If generally: Wait for decisions from Fed. And as always, date of this decisions “accidentally” matches with date of expiration on futures. So, maybe new contract will be with new “fundamental filling”.

Have a good week!

Commets for trade week 20-24 of may 2013

About pound.
Tendency to sell in work, all last week was slowly descent. Worked off of pattern “Wednesday at wednesday” – under question (not enough 27 pips to high of the week). But we in sell tendency, so it’s not surprise. And anomal buy signal worked good, gave about 100 pips.

When tendency will change – we will buy additional, at now in work the same orders, i still don’t want to buy additional. Need to wait signal from Heiken on D1, or changing of tendency to buy in middle-term. But we have none of this now.

Can we sell? – Yes. But with SL. Because we in buy-zone and any day can jump to buy (but in COT report i don’t see symptom of this).

So on pound – all is clear and all works. And on monday we have buy signal from TST indexes – so we can try to work it.

Canadian – beauty – catch upper balances that was in debts on TST Levels.

Australian – hot rally, wait for signal from Heiken Ashi on D1 for next buy.

Euro and NZD – nothing interesting. On NZD i still hold sell from 0,8662, will fix it and open buy when Heiken paint to buy or after signal on options.

So, no big changes in positions of “major” pairs. Maybe will be something interesting on news.

I wish you good luck and profitable trading!

Comments for week 13-17 of may 2013

Read my message from 5 of may and try to think – which scenario starts to work :), especially if you trade on pound.

Precisely rebound from white level and broke of yellow. It says about two things: born of sell-signal in middle-term, that may continue on this week, or broke and rise higher than yellow level. About trade plan i’ll write lower…

Second thing – if go deeper, then debts on 5650 left for “tomorrow” and closer target will be on 1,5. About this i also wrote in message from 5 may. Anyway, we have scenarios and expectations. We see how it work and we need to orient in it.

What my trade plan?

I bought small from 5413 – anyway will be come back to this level (switch indicator TST Monthly to history mode and look how it works in case of broke).

Anyway i will not to sell. But to buy… if conservatively then after paint of Heiken to “buy” color. If NOT conservatively – closer buy on bottom overprice or even lower (part on overprice and part on buy-zone).

All last week was interesting: Australian fall very deep – who holds sells – well done. I bought australian, because bottom overprice is close. But if conservatively – better to wait signal from Heiken Ashi. Very possible that he will flat here and go up. Symptom of this scenario is exists, and broke this scenario can only bad fundament in Australia or China.

Euro beautifully walks on TST levels – will see what she show on this week. In generally – sentiment looks like flat.

Summarize. We have scenarios and expectations. Now we need just work, considering TST Global ZOne and TST Levels, and also other intraday indications.

Have a good week!

Comment for week 15-19 april 2013

Good day!

Expectations of clear on situation – not justified. Data is unclear and thanks god TST Global start to shifts. Regroup on futures – not strong – but began.

We can only supposing what is it. Likely on euro will be rollback, because all data shows descend. But i expected sell from area 1.32.

Pound – there are bog. Signal to buy is exhausted. Signal to sell – still no have.

Considering all broken and important levels – and it’s yellow level on TST Monthly, that worked good and push pound to sell-levels – then we can expecting rollback to yellow again, and there broke down or rebound and form flat in area 1.54 – 1.5260. But repeat again, buy signal is almost finished, and no sell signal.

Resume? Situation needs to push from fundament.

From side of TST and TST Hedge – whole week i will be monitoring signal, and look for clear signal.

Canadian – that who is well done! In friday i close part of deals, in case of growth – i will sell again. If go down – will work on TST Global, and recommend it to you.

NZD – good rebound from upper overprice. I sell working lot from overprice.

AUD – sell from border of sell-zone. Europound – all fine. In general, in system again period of silence. And i receive questions: “what to do if strong flying will continues?”

Answering:
1) Watch on TST Monthly. It will give us range of movements for a month. If you see that edge levels is far – correct your MM.

2) With high volatility i recommend to use TST Global Zone with Heiken Ashi indicator. And open first order from quarter levels, second order on signal from Heiken Ashi.

This two moments can save your deposit in hard times.

I wish you good luck on this week!