Comments for trade week 29.07 – 02.08 of year 2013

Current week is most uncomfortable for forecasts and expectations. Moreover, on this week many important news (bank rates) – so i think till this moment we can not expect some good movements. Even if will be – don’t care.

System in profit, and if pairs that in profit will descend – we will average. If will go further in profit, then will close by TST Global.

About details… Everybody saw TST Monthly and note this work. Likely, you note work of Canadian on TST Monthly. And good work of tendency to buy on GBPUSD, but it freezes and, maybe, awaiting push from bank rate. Anyway, i expecting “decision” about broke or continue of tendency in range between two peaks on 25 july: bottom on 5265 and top on 5435. Here will decide what tendency we will have, buy or sell.

In general, wait movements on news on this week, and then will see.

Trade week 22-26 of july 2013

Interesting thing – on NZD buy-zone is “mad”.

Hard to say something about market, Bernanke mixed all data.

Only pound “confirmed” tendency to buy in middle-term(by the way, range of sell-tendency is still very wide, keep it in mind if you work w/o SL) – for change tendency to sell pound must descent lower 1.5 and 1.49. It can broke current tendency and give big drawdown on buy opened on high from 11 july (Of course if you risk and opened). And on absolutely positions COT to sell. And this also matches with out thoughts. Canadian again give upper balance. And this is symptom of descend pound and rise of Canadian. And best question – how far and how long?

It’s summer now, plus Bernanke. What he did? Two important for him things:
1) Don’t gave to clear understand when QE will finished, and linked it with statistic on USA (and we know that statistic in USA very “clear” and “honestly” :))
2) He said that “we can finish or begin QE in any moment”… Great :)

Smells like year 2008-2009-2010. Then such manipulations was very popular. What was with money? Money is nervous. Smart – stay aside from market and don’t open new deals, and only administrate existing if have. “Stupid” – jump in market. More fear – more deals by tendency (now we see in COT that all stay to sell on pound). And then market “go” by favourite rule: against most. Is logic clear? :)

Will see how this logic works. We work on TST Global.

Recommendations on this week?

Summer. Spend more time outdoor, on nature. Go to the beach, don’t miss a chance to take a rest, because i think that autumn will funny. :)

 

TST Levels. GBP/USD on 2013.07.15 and few words about new week

Day borders of options balance
UP           1.5456
DOWN   1.4771

The level of balance of the day –   1.5083

Index TST Buy     0.1947
Index TST Sell    0.1328

Mandatory zone
1.5053
1.5027

Day direction – *****

Tendency – SELL-FLAT (changing tendency?)

Zones
SELL    1.5203     1.5330
BUY      1.5008     1.4881

Comments:
Hello!

On last week was many events and very high volatility, but at this moment we almost on the same levels as and on 4 july, where i gone on vacation :)

About this week.

After rush up on past week market stopped to decide what next. I thought – what are we waiting for? And BINGO! Market wait wednesday and thursday – Bernanke’s speech. All very tangled in his speeches and on market. And we have to work with this.

Work on Global + Heiken on D1.

On pound we identified symptoms of changing tendency to buy, but it not confirmed yet. It will be confirmed when we broke and retest high of 11 july. It’s levels 5220. Comeback to low – broke 4811 and hold lower.

Very wide range for define tendency. But here also possible to work.

Variants:

1. Buy-stop 5220 + 10-25 pips (You can set SL, but i don’t know where)

2. Buy-limit from area 1.4962 (Ladder up from 11 july). If you will use big lot – then necessarily to set SL!

To open orders from current levels – not good. Open sell? Not good idea too.

So wait :)

Important levels for pound:

5216
5011

Comments for trade week 01 – 05 july 2013

About pound.

First – about my “wish”. Blue scenario was broken. But broken at level 5170, which was level of start “wish” in april(yellow arrow).

Second – Monthly…

We see third rebound from important level. Previous was more than 50 pips, but against sell-tendency can’t gave more. Closest level to comeback is 5297, and next 5378. This is levels for comeback. In targets – nothing changed. We in bottom part of TST Global Zones – and all targets higher – center, quarter, upper overprice.

I received question in skype, why i gave comments in tendency and i have contradictions: from one side – we need to buy in buy-zone on Global, from other – we have sell tendency inside buy-zone, and i give recommendations about deals.

Remind one more time:

Don’t confuse signal and tactic. In day when i have sell-signal, i can look for buy, so i can work to buy from targets of sell-signal. And also in day with buy signal i can looking place for sell deal.

Main strategy: work on TST Monthly – it shows range of movements for month and target levels. TST Global – shows what kind of deals we need to look (buy or sell). TST Levels and other indicators – shows places or signals for open deal. If it work smart.

If simple – lower than center of Global we open buy from bottom quarter. If price go lower – wait signal from Heiken Ashi on D1, or open additional deals not closer than 120-150 pips from previous order.

Targets: center between overprices – close first part of deals. Upper quarter – close one more part, upper overprice – close all deals.

And always question: price in buy-zone, on bottom quarter, how to define how deep price can descent more? Or price in sell-zone, how far it can rise?

We was needed good way to define tendency. And now this way(tendency) in work – no one mistake from 12 march.

Explain one more time:

1. You can work by tendency with SL, if like now – tendency to sell, but we in buy-zone. Where to set SL? I don’t know, i don’t use SL. On pictures you can see that can be drawdown 50-100 pips from moment of define tendency. Maybe need to set SL on nearest low or high.

2. You can work on TST Global as usually – don’t trade on tendency, but use it to not open too much deals. Like now, price in buy-zone, but tendency to sell, so we must don’t open buy deals till tendency not changed, or open very small lot (from “Ladder up”, for example). And when tendency will change to buy – we open buy deal.

I hope after this explanation all become more clear.

About other pairs nothing to say… Only Australian, which not justified my expectations about reverse on past week. And i can comment situation on him only after tomorrow. After bank rate decision. Everybody waiting this: from speculators on futures and members of commodity markets till sellers of options.

After news about rate we can make some analisys. I can suppose two scenario: First: perspectively – till 7 july rise to 0.96 and 0.98.

Not good scenario: flat on current levels till september…

Very bad: fundament and other events push Australian down, and from wednesday starts to sell one more category of players, which needs to protect themselves from losses. And this will be “mini 2008″.

Of course this situation is uncomfortable and unpleasantly – but for 3 years we have such situation few times and always goes to profit in the end. So keep MM and good luck! :)

Trade week 24-28 of june 2013

Hello!

Only few words. Because on this week nothing to say about situation – COT and other data came through expiration of futures, that’s why TST Global on the same levels (on next week he can sharply shifts).

So, new position we’ll see only in next monday. But, in generally, nothing changes: Australian still walking under overprice, Canadian broke upper overprice, Euro in sell – go from upper quarter to center between overprices, pound – in sell tendency, stopped on yellow level on TST Monthly, and looks like wants to descend on “Ladder up”.

On pound we in sell tendency, and from friday nothing changed, you can look my message for friday.

So, at this moment, no some special recommendations. Just repeat – trade only from quarters and overprices on TST Global – ignore buy-sell zones. About this tactic i writing from february, when we saw that central banks goes to market.

I think(hope), that on this week players on market will trade and we’ll have data, that we can use in analisys. These expiration blind weeks in summer, and at summer big players go out from market. So, have a chance that we will here till september.

So, will see results of this week and then decide.

Comments for trade week 10-14 of june 2013

Good day!

First. I want to congratulate to all with good profit on pound and perfect work of tendency. And on data and Monthly i see range for this month 4522 – 6085 – or 1.45 – 1.61.

You need to keep this in mind and calculate your risks considering this range.

Moreover, Monthly shows two yellow BELOW the price. And this automatically rises chances of bulls to rise from yellow levels. And also very good looks here our level 5323 (it’s Ladder up from past week). And in the same area also white level 5315. So this area very strong and very high temptation to buy there, but also have chances of broke all this beauty.

In my system pound in buy tendency now, in position when time for rollback, and COT and other symptoms says about this. But if look on TST Global, he touch center and now freezed in this area. It’s most uncomfortable place for analisys. From there he can go up and also go down. And if he will start to fall and broke yellow – then catch change of tendency to sell will be not easy.

What to do? Nothing. If we go upper – hold your buy-deals till upper overprice. If go down – by situation, average or wait buy tendency and then buy. By the way, you can try to buy a little from ladder up. To broke so strong level – need to cancel QE :)

And i little change my wish – need to add one more scenario. Yellow: rise to 5743(closer upper target on Monthly) and fall on 5323. It will be an ideal scenario. And scenarios like this worked very good in the past.

Other symptoms of sell i don’t want to discuss – you see all by yourself on TST Global Zone. Yes, he in sell-zone, but still under center of overprices. And nobody cancel the buy tendency…

About Euro…

On euro i see interesting level 3094. High probability to come back to this level, but all “freezes” in waiting of Fed’s decision. And unclear situation on TST Monthly – 3222 violet. We opened very close to them, and which side wait rebound – up or down? :). But in TST Global she in sell zone and touched upper quarter, so we can expect descent at least to center – area 1.2984.

On Canadian (he in sell), europound and NZD – now nothing interesting. I want to write more detailed about Australian. By timing calculations, today – important day. And this matches with news from China.

What i think about this.

Yes – fundament is not good. So continue to work on Global with Heiken Ashi and wait signal.

BUT! We have data from expiration. And on this data i can expect return as minimum to 0.9868, 0.9950, 1.0015.

What can broke this? Chinese news. I look on history, and we have range about 150-200 pips for fall.

Recommendations? Watch on Heiken, and if MM is good – buy. Or just wait of come back as minimum to 0.9868 and partially close “worst” orders.

P.S.: Don’t forget that current week is last before expiration of futures. So any analisys can be broken. Keep this in mind and be carefull with size of lot.

Good luck!

Comments for week 27-31 of may 2013

First. Maybe you see that last two weeks was virus attack on our servers, so i recommend to make antivirus check on your computers. We working with this problem, our apologize! Looks like we interfere to someone :)

Now about market.

Pound

Middle-term sell tendency take a pause. I see that on rollback was closing of sell-positions. It’s not signal to buy (because they closed sell, but can open again in any time), but, probably, we get pause. And if will no pressure from fundament – can be rise to 52.

I repeat: no signal to buy. Sell tendency still in work. If i will see signal to buy – i will scream about it everywhere.

By positions on pound: Heiken on D1 very red. So i have only one buy and i don’t hurry up to average. Wait for signal.

If you work conservatively – then you have no buys or only from 5413. If agressive – about 2-4 buy-deals. Better not open sell now, if already opened – better to close.

Euro

Still “nothing interesting”. Lying under fundamental pressure. And pound and euro, and all others – waiting decision about QE. And this decision awaited 18-19 june.

If i don’t mistake – today is holidays in GB and USA. So, today can be flat all day or very sharply movements. Be carefull, today is not the best day for trading.

About middle-term – as i said: likely will be nothing globally until decision about QE.

Australian

Heiken is red. Wait signal from him or from data in DB.

NZD – the same.

And Canadian – catch sell from overprice level and now gave a little profit.

If generally: Wait for decisions from Fed. And as always, date of this decisions “accidentally” matches with date of expiration on futures. So, maybe new contract will be with new “fundamental filling”.

Have a good week!